As the number of so-called unicorn startups soars, the big question in Silicon Valley right now is whether we're in a tech bubble—and, if so, how soon it will pop. While not everyone agrees that the bubble question itself is the right one to ask, it's one that's on the minds of those who stand to lose the most.
In a survey of more than 500 venture-backed startup founders, VC firm First Round Capital learned that they aren't quite as optimistic as you might expect. A full 73 percent of founders surveyed answered yes, we are currently in a bubble, though founders of enterprise companies were more optimistic than those of consumer-oriented startups. (Fewer than 25 percent of the companies surveyed were in First Round's portfolio, the firm says.)
Meanwhile, nearly every founder surveyed was less than optimistic about the prospect of raising more money in the future. Ninety-nine percent said they thought raising late-stage funding would either stay as difficult as it is now or become more difficult. Ninety-five percent said the same for seed funding, while 97 percent felt the same for series A funding.
On the question of going public, founders are divided, showing little agreement on whether to expect more, the same, or fewer IPOs next year. "There doesn't seem to be a ton of clarity around this topic—even among late-stage companies, there's still no consensus," First Round said. But the voice of maturity does seem to have some influence. Earlier stage startups seem to think they'll IPO in the next 3 years, the survey found, while later stage ones say it'll take at least 7 more.
The survey results are chock full of insights (for example, Elon Musk is "far and away" the most admired tech leader), and well worth a look. After all, even though the survey only represents a small slice of sunny Silicon Valley, it's clear that there's at least some anxiety when it comes to the future.
